In August-September 2025, the global DDR4 memory market experienced unprecedented volatility. For the first time, DDR4 prices surpassed those of DDR5, resulting in a rare price inversion phenomenon. This abnormal situation led major memory giants to reassess their product strategies, causing significant changes in market supply and demand.
Price Inversion: A Rare Occurrence in the DDR4 Market
Since June 2025, DDR4 memory prices began to notably exceed those of DDR5. According to TrendForce data, the spot price of 16Gb DDR4 climbed from $7.01 in June to $8.59 in August, a rise of 22.5%. During the same period, the price of DDR5 products with the same capacity only increased slightly from $5.85 to $6.17, a gain of 5.5%. By the end of August, the price gap between the two continued to widen, with DDR4 priced approximately 39% higher than DDR5. This price inversion has persisted for nearly three months. Market analysts note that such a situation is extremely rare in the memory industry, with the last similar occurrence happening during the transition from DDR2 to DDR3.
Major Manufacturers’ Responses: Diverging Strategies
In response to market changes, the three major memory manufacturers adopted different strategies. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have adjusted their plans to discontinue production, extending DDR4 manufacturing until 2026. SK Hynix also notified customers that it would boost DDR4 output at its older wafer fab in Wuxi. This decision is seen by the industry as a typical market adjustment driven primarily by profit motives. In contrast, Micron Technology has stuck to its original plan to end production. The company issued an end-of-life notice for DDR4 and LPDDR4 to customers in June 2025 and is expected to cease related shipments within the next two to three months.
Multiple Factors Causing Supply-Demand Imbalance
One key factor leading to tight DDR4 supply is the squeeze on HBM production capacity. Al applications have driven a surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory, whose production consumes approximately three times more wafers than standard DRAM.
Reduced market supply also results from Chinese manufacturers shifting their focus. Chinese DRAM producers such as CXMT have announced they will stop DDR4 production in 2025, accelerating their transition to DDR5.
The completion of equipment depreciation has made continued DDR4 production highly profitable. Equipment for older DDR4 production lines is fully depreciated, resulting in very low marginal costs. Under the current high-price environment,continuing DDR4 production has become an extremely attractive business.
Policy factors have also impacted global supply.The US removed Samsung’ s Xi’ an factory,SK Hynix’s Wuxi factory,and Intel’s Dalian factory from its validated end-user list, hindering expansion plans for Samsung in Xi’ an and SK Hynix in Wuxi.
Downstream Industries Under Supply Pressure
Tight DDR4 supply has already affected downstream industries. PC OEM manufacturers are facing shortages, forcing them to scale back production and sales plans for DDR4 models and accelerate the adoption of DDR5 solutions. Many manufacturers,unable to secure sufficient supply, have had to increase the proportion of DDR5 models.The PC memory market for DDR4 is now characterized by price increases and volume decreases. In the smartphone market, a wide range of low and mid-range models still primarily use LPDDR4X. As American and Korean manufacturers reduce or stop supplying LPDDR4X, panic is spreading in the market.The supply-demand imbalance is even more severe in the consumer electronics sector. Terminal demand comes from industrial control, networking, televisions, consumer electronics, and controllers, where DDR4 is the main memory specification. However, supply allocation for these applications falls behind that for PCs and servers.
Future Outlook: Inversion Unlikely to Last
Industry analysts generally believe that the current price inversion between DDR4 and DDR5 is unlikely to be sustained in the long term. Historical data shows that a price reversal lasting about four months also occurred during the transition from DDR2 to DDR3, but the market eventually returned to normal order as the technology transition completed. In the long run, the DDR4 life cycle has already exceeded ten years. Technological iteration and the rise of Al applications will continue to drive the market rapidly toward DDR5 and HBM. The current price fluctuations may merely represent the last highlight for traditional products.
